FlightRecord

Sacramento (SMF) to Minneapolis (MSP): On-Time Performance

Data through May 2026

The calendar drives reliability on SMF–MSP. August 2025 flights landed on schedule 98% of the time, but January 2026 dropped to 74% — a gap of 25 points. Across the full period the route averages 90% on-time against a national 78%.

On-time
90%
arrived <15 min late
Avg delay
7 min
completed flights
Cancelled
0.7%
Flights/day
1.6
last 12 months
Duration
3h 29m
scheduled
Distance
1,517 mi

Monthly on-time trend

Monthly on-time percentage for SMF to MSP flights50%75%100%June 2024: 80% on-time (56 flights)80Jun 2024July 2024: 87% on-time (56 flights)87August 2024: 85% on-time (54 flights)85September 2024: 92% on-time (51 flights)92Sep 2024October 2024: 89% on-time (53 flights)89November 2024: 89% on-time (47 flights)89December 2024: 92% on-time (60 flights)92Dec 2024January 2025: 78% on-time (36 flights)78February 2025: 89% on-time (28 flights)89March 2025: 84% on-time (31 flights)84Mar 2025April 2025: 97% on-time (30 flights)97May 2025: 95% on-time (55 flights)95June 2025: 95% on-time (60 flights)95Jun 2025July 2025: 92% on-time (60 flights)92August 2025: 98% on-time (60 flights)98September 2025: 96% on-time (55 flights)96Sep 2025October 2025: 98% on-time (58 flights)98November 2025: 93% on-time (57 flights)93December 2025: 81% on-time (61 flights)81Dec 2025January 2026: 74% on-time (34 flights)74February 2026: 96% on-time (28 flights)96March 2026: 90% on-time (31 flights)90Mar 2026April 2026: 93% on-time (30 flights)93May 2026: 96% on-time (56 flights)96

Best time to fly from SMF to MSP

Aim for departures around 2 p.m. (94% on-time); avoid 12 p.m. departures (81%).

On-time percentage by scheduled departure hour, SMF to MSP6 a.m.: 92% on-time (728 flights)612 p.m.: 81% on-time (145 flights)121 p.m.: 89% on-time (134 flights)132 p.m.: 94% on-time (138 flights)14scheduled departure hour

By day of week

DayOn-timeAvg delay
Monday90%12 min
Tuesday92%4 min
Wednesday93%6 min
Thursdaybest93%4 min
Friday89%8 min
Saturday89%8 min
Sunday87%10 min

What causes delays on this route

Share of total delay minutes by cause, as reported by carriers to the US DOT.

  • Late-arriving aircraft18%
  • Airline operations61%
  • National airspace system20%

Frequently asked questions

How often are flights from SMF to MSP delayed?
10% of SMF–MSP flights arrived 15 or more minutes late (the US DOT definition of a delay) between 2024-06 and 2026-05. The average arrival delay across completed flights was 7 minutes.
What is the best time of day to fly from SMF to MSP?
Departures around 2 p.m. have the best record (94% on-time), while departures around 12 p.m. have the worst (81%). As on most US routes, delays accumulate through the day, so earlier flights are generally safer.
How long is the flight from SMF to MSP?
The scheduled SMF–MSP flight time averages 3h 29m over 1,517 miles. Actual arrival times vary — flights on this route land 15+ minutes late 10% of the time.
How often are SMF to MSP flights cancelled?
0.7% of scheduled flights on this route were cancelled between 2024-06 and 2026-05, at or below the national rate of 1.6%.
What is the worst month to fly from SMF to MSP?
January 2026 was the roughest month in this dataset, with only 74% of arrivals on time. The best was August 2025 at 98%. If your dates are flexible, that 25-point gap is worth planning around.

Based on 1,147 flights, 2024-062026-05. Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Updated 2026-07-01.