Minneapolis (MSP) to Sacramento (SMF): On-Time Performance
Data through July 2026
The calendar drives reliability on MSP–SMF. September 2024 flights landed on schedule 96% of the time, but January 2026 dropped to 54% — a gap of 42 points. Across the full period the route averages 82% on-time against a national 78%. Morning departures also hold up better than evening ones (90% vs 77%), which matters most in the rough months.
- On-time
- 82%
- arrived <15 min late
- Avg delay
- 10 min
- completed flights
- Cancelled
- 0.6%
- Flights/day
- 1.6
- last 12 months
- Duration
- 3h 52m
- scheduled
- Distance
- 1,517 mi
Monthly on-time trend
Best time to fly from MSP to SMF
Aim for departures around 11 a.m. (93% on-time); avoid 9 p.m. departures (69%).
By day of week
| Day | On-time | Avg delay |
|---|---|---|
| Monday | 81% | 12 min |
| Tuesdaybest | 86% | 7 min |
| Wednesday | 85% | 8 min |
| Thursday | 78% | 10 min |
| Friday | 82% | 10 min |
| Saturday | 79% | 16 min |
| Sunday | 81% | 10 min |
What causes delays on this route
Share of total delay minutes by cause, as reported by carriers to the US DOT.
- Late-arriving aircraft24%
- Airline operations55%
- National airspace system19%
- Weather2%
Frequently asked questions
- How often are flights from MSP to SMF delayed?
- 18% of MSP–SMF flights arrived 15 or more minutes late (the US DOT definition of a delay) between 2024-07 and 2026-07. The average arrival delay across completed flights was 10 minutes.
- What is the best time of day to fly from MSP to SMF?
- Departures around 11 a.m. have the best record (93% on-time), while departures around 9 p.m. have the worst (69%). As on most US routes, delays accumulate through the day, so earlier flights are generally safer.
- How long is the flight from MSP to SMF?
- The scheduled MSP–SMF flight time averages 3h 52m over 1,517 miles. Actual arrival times vary — flights on this route land 15+ minutes late 18% of the time.
- How often are MSP to SMF flights cancelled?
- 0.6% of scheduled flights on this route were cancelled between 2024-07 and 2026-07, at or below the national rate of 1.6%.
- What is the worst month to fly from MSP to SMF?
- January 2026 was the roughest month in this dataset, with only 54% of arrivals on time. The best was September 2024 at 96%. If your dates are flexible, that 42-point gap is worth planning around.
Explore related pages
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Other ways to fly to Sacramento (SMF)
Related guides
Based on 1,212 flights, 2024-07–2026-07. Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Updated 2026-09-28.