Minneapolis (MSP) to Sacramento (SMF): On-Time Performance
Data through May 2026
The calendar drives reliability on MSP–SMF. September 2024 flights landed on schedule 96% of the time, but June 2024 dropped to 54% — a gap of 42 points. Across the full period the route averages 80% on-time against a national 78%. Morning departures also hold up better than evening ones (88% vs 75%), which matters most in the rough months.
- On-time
- 80%
- arrived <15 min late
- Avg delay
- 12 min
- completed flights
- Cancelled
- 0.6%
- Flights/day
- 1.6
- last 12 months
- Duration
- 3h 52m
- scheduled
- Distance
- 1,517 mi
Monthly on-time trend
Best time to fly from MSP to SMF
Aim for departures around 11 a.m. (93% on-time); avoid 9 p.m. departures (64%).
By day of week
| Day | On-time | Avg delay |
|---|---|---|
| Monday | 79% | 13 min |
| Tuesdaybest | 86% | 11 min |
| Wednesday | 82% | 9 min |
| Thursday | 75% | 11 min |
| Friday | 79% | 11 min |
| Saturday | 81% | 15 min |
| Sunday | 78% | 12 min |
What causes delays on this route
Share of total delay minutes by cause, as reported by carriers to the US DOT.
- Late-arriving aircraft22%
- Airline operations57%
- National airspace system20%
- Weather1%
Frequently asked questions
- How often are flights from MSP to SMF delayed?
- 20% of MSP–SMF flights arrived 15 or more minutes late (the US DOT definition of a delay) between 2024-06 and 2026-05. The average arrival delay across completed flights was 12 minutes.
- What is the best time of day to fly from MSP to SMF?
- Departures around 11 a.m. have the best record (93% on-time), while departures around 9 p.m. have the worst (64%). As on most US routes, delays accumulate through the day, so earlier flights are generally safer.
- How long is the flight from MSP to SMF?
- The scheduled MSP–SMF flight time averages 3h 52m over 1,517 miles. Actual arrival times vary — flights on this route land 15+ minutes late 20% of the time.
- How often are MSP to SMF flights cancelled?
- 0.6% of scheduled flights on this route were cancelled between 2024-06 and 2026-05, at or below the national rate of 1.6%.
- What is the worst month to fly from MSP to SMF?
- June 2024 was the roughest month in this dataset, with only 54% of arrivals on time. The best was September 2024 at 96%. If your dates are flexible, that 42-point gap is worth planning around.
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Based on 1,147 flights, 2024-06–2026-05. Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Updated 2026-07-01.