Are Flight Cancellations Rising or Falling? 2024-2026 Data

US flight cancellations are trending up. Comparing the most recent 12 months of FlightRecord's data to the first 12, the national cancellation rate climbed from 1.4% to 1.8% of flights, roughly a 31% increase, driven mostly by an unusually severe stretch of winter storms in January 2026, when 4.7% of flights were cancelled nationwide.

Key takeaways

• The national cancellation rate averaged 1.6% of flights across FlightRecord's full 24-month window, June 2024 through May 2026.
• The trailing 12-month average rose from 1.4% to 1.8% of flights, about a 31% increase, even though the single most recent month, May 2026 at 0.9%, came in below where the window started.
• January is the worst month for cancellations, averaging 3.9% across the two Januarys in the data, including a 4.7% peak in January 2026, the highest single month on record here.
• July is the second-worst month, averaging 2.7% across two summers, while September is the most reliable month, averaging just 0.6%.
• PSA Airlines, a regional carrier, cancelled 11.6% of its flights in January 2026, nearly three times its own two-year average of 3.9%.

Is the US flight cancellation rate actually rising?

Yes, but not in a straight line. Look at trailing 12-month averages instead of single months and the direction is clear: cancellations averaged 1.4% of flights in the first year of FlightRecord's data, June 2024 through May 2025, and 1.8% of flights in the most recent year, June 2025 through May 2026. That's an increase of about 31%, and it matches a mild upward drift across the full 24-month window, with the underlying trend adding roughly 0.03 percentage points of cancellations per month on average.

Single months tell a messier story. The window opened in June 2024 at a 1.3% cancellation rate and closed in May 2026 at 0.9%, which looks like an improvement if you only compare the first month to the last. That comparison is misleading: cancellations are dominated by a handful of severe-weather months, especially January 2026, when the rate spiked to 4.7%, by far the highest of any month FlightRecord tracks. Pull that one month out and the two-year trend looks much flatter. The honest read is that cancellations are volatile and modestly rising, driven more by how bad the worst months get than by a steady month-over-month climb.

What time of year has the most flight cancellations?

Winter and midsummer, most years. Averaging the two instances of each calendar month in FlightRecord's 24-month window, January comes out worst by a wide margin, followed by July, both months when weather disrupts flying at scale, whether that's snow and ice grounding Northeast hubs or thunderstorms backing up the Southeast and Midwest.

• 1. January — 3.9% average cancellation rate, peaking at 4.7% in 2026
• 2. July — 2.7% average cancellation rate
• 3. March — 2.0% average cancellation rate

September, by contrast, averaged just 0.6% across the two Septembers in the data, the most reliable month for actually getting on your scheduled flight.

How does the cancellation rate compare to the on-time rate?

They measure different things, and they can diverge sharply in the same month. FlightRecord's on-time rate only counts flights that actually departed and landed; cancelled and diverted flights are excluded from delay and on-time figures entirely, as explained on the methodology page. That means a month can look fine by the on-time number while still cancelling an outsized share of flights outright.

January 2026 is the clearest example: the on-time rate that month was 79.0%, essentially in line with the two-year average of 78.2%. But the cancellation rate was 4.7%, nearly three times the two-year average of 1.6%. Anyone reading only the on-time number would have missed that January 2026 was, by far, the worst month in the data for actually getting a scheduled flight to operate at all.

Which airlines cancel the most flights?

Regional carriers lead the list. Across the full 24-month window, PSA Airlines posted the highest cancellation rate of any carrier FlightRecord tracks, at 3.9% of scheduled flights, followed by Republic Airways at 3.2%. Both fly regional jets on connecting routes for larger network carriers, and both saw cancellation rates spike far higher during bad-weather months: PSA cancelled 9.0% of its flights in January 2025, then 11.6% in January 2026, nearly three times its own two-year average.

See the full most-cancelled airlines ranking for how every carrier compares, and the most-cancelled routes ranking to check a specific route's history.

What causes most flight cancellations?

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics asks carriers to classify cancellations into four categories: weather, the carrier itself, the National Aviation System (things like air-traffic control flow restrictions), and security. FlightRecord's dataset doesn't break individual cancellations down by cause, so it can't put a number on how much each category contributes.

What the seasonal pattern above does show is that the biggest swings track known severe-weather windows almost exactly: January's winter storms and July's thunderstorm season are consistently the two worst months, while September, outside both storm seasons, is consistently the calmest. That pattern is strong circumstantial evidence that weather drives most of the swing in the cancellation rate, even without a cause-by-cause breakdown.

Frequently asked questions

Are flight cancellations getting worse?

Gradually, yes. The trailing 12-month cancellation rate rose from 1.4% of flights (June 2024–May 2025) to 1.8% of flights (June 2025–May 2026), an increase of about 31%. That said, the single most recent month in the data, May 2026, posted a 0.9% cancellation rate, lower than where the window began, a reminder that this is a volatile, weather-driven metric that reads more clearly over a full year than a single month.

What time of year has the most flight cancellations?

January, by a wide margin. Averaged across the two Januarys in FlightRecord's data, the cancellation rate hit 3.9% of flights, including a 4.7% peak in January 2026. July is the second-worst month at 2.7%, driven by summer thunderstorms. September is the calmest, averaging just 0.6%.

How does the cancellation rate compare to the on-time rate?

They're separate metrics that can move independently. On-time and delay figures only cover flights that actually operated; cancelled flights are excluded entirely. In January 2026, for example, the on-time rate (79.0%) was close to the two-year average (78.2%), even though the cancellation rate that same month (4.7%) was nearly three times the two-year average of 1.6%.

What causes most flight cancellations in the US?

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics groups causes into weather, the carrier, the National Aviation System, and security, but FlightRecord's data doesn't report a cause-by-cause breakdown. The clearest evidence in this dataset is seasonal: cancellations consistently spike in January (winter storms) and July (summer thunderstorms), and consistently bottom out in September, which points to weather as the dominant factor behind the swings.

Which airline cancels the most flights?

PSA Airlines, a regional carrier, had the highest cancellation rate of any airline in FlightRecord's 24-month window at 3.9% of scheduled flights, ahead of Republic Airways at 3.2%. Both are regional carriers that fly smaller jets on connecting routes, which tend to get cancelled first when hub airports back up. See the most-cancelled airlines ranking for the full list.

What counts as a cancelled flight in this data?

FlightRecord follows the Department of Transportation's definition: a cancelled flight is one that was scheduled to operate but didn't, for any reason. It's tracked separately from a diverted flight, which departs but lands somewhere other than its scheduled destination. Both are excluded from on-time and average-delay calculations; see the methodology page for the full breakdown.