Are Morning Flights Really Less Likely to Be Delayed?
By Sharon Ben-Moshe ·
Yes — morning flights are meaningfully less likely to be delayed. Departures in the 6 a.m. hour arrive on time about 92% of the time, compared with roughly 67% for 8 p.m. departures, based on 14.1 million US flights from June 2024 through May 2026 from the US DOT.
What the data shows
On-time rates start high at dawn and decline through the day. The earliest banks (5–7 a.m.) sit around 90–92%; by early evening the figure falls into the high 60s. It is one of the most consistent patterns in the whole dataset.
The 'first flight of the day' advantage
The aircraft flying your 6 a.m. departure usually spent the night at the airport, so it can't inherit a delay from an earlier leg. Later flights increasingly depend on aircraft, crews, and gates that are already running behind — the late-arriving aircraft effect.
The trade-offs of flying early
- Earlier alarm and a harder commute to the airport
- Better odds of an on-time arrival and a same-day rebooking if something goes wrong
- Lower chance of the cascading afternoon delays that build at big hubs
If you want to go further, compare it with the best day of the week to fly and the most reliable airports.
Frequently asked questions
How much better are morning flights?
About 24 percentage points at the extremes — a 6 a.m. departure is on time roughly 92% of the time versus about 67% at 8 p.m.
Is it worth booking a 6 a.m. flight?
If arriving on time matters — a connection, a meeting, a cruise — the early flight is the safest choice in the data.