Best Time to Fly for Thanksgiving and Christmas Travel

November is the more reliable month to fly for the holidays, averaging about 83% on-time over the past two years, compared to about 76% for December. That 7-point gap held in both 2024 and 2025. FlightRecord's data is reported monthly, not by specific calendar date, so treat this as a seasonal pattern rather than a single "avoid this exact day" rule.

• November has beaten December for on-time performance in both years measured. 85.6% vs. 78.3% in 2024, and 80.1% vs. 73.1% in 2025 — an average of about 83% for November versus about 76% for December.
• Cancellations don't follow the same pattern. December cancelled more than November in 2024 (0.70% vs. 0.45%), but November cancelled more than December in 2025 (2.49% vs. 1.55%) — cancellations swing by year in a way the on-time gap doesn't.
• There's no day-specific "worst day before Thanksgiving" number in this data. BTS reports on-time performance monthly, not by calendar date, so this post reports monthly findings only.
• Pair the monthly pattern with a general heuristic, not a new holiday-specific measurement. FlightRecord's day-of-week analysis found Tuesday and Wednesday most reliable and Sunday least reliable across an ordinary week — but the Wednesday before Thanksgiving is an atypically high-volume exception worth treating carefully (more below).

Thanksgiving vs. Christmas: on-time rates for both years

FlightRecord tracked four Thanksgiving-and-Christmas months across its 24-month data window, covering more than 2.3 million flights combined. Here's how each one performed:

• November 2024 — 85.6% on-time, 0.45% cancelled, 10.2-minute average departure delay, across 575,404 flights.
• December 2024 — 78.3% on-time, 0.70% cancelled, 16.6-minute average departure delay, across 590,581 flights.
• November 2025 — 80.1% on-time, 2.49% cancelled, 15.6-minute average departure delay, across 570,550 flights.
• December 2025 — 73.1% on-time, 1.55% cancelled, 21.2-minute average departure delay, across 582,304 flights.

Both years follow the same shape: November consistently outperforms December. FlightRecord's national on-time average across all 24 months of data is 78.2%, so November holiday travel actually beats a typical month, while December holiday travel falls modestly below it. The gap between the best of the four (November 2024, 85.6%) and the worst (December 2025, 73.1%) is more than 12 percentage points — a spread in the same range as the gap between the most and least reliable US airlines, except here it's driven by which year and month you fly rather than which airline you book.

Why is December worse than November for flying?

Two things compound in December that November mostly avoids. First, winter weather arrives in earnest across the northern and central US in the back half of the year, and December sits deeper into that window than November does — a pattern covered in more detail in FlightRecord's look at why flights get delayed. Second, the Christmas-and-New-Year stretch compresses an enormous amount of leisure travel into roughly two weeks on top of whatever weather shows up, while Thanksgiving's travel surge is a shorter, single-week spike earlier in a month that's historically one of the better-performing months of the year — see FlightRecord's breakdown of the worst (and best) months to fly for how November and December each compare to the rest of the calendar.

Cancellations swung sharply between the two holiday seasons

Cancellations tell a different story from delays, and they didn't move in as consistent a pattern year to year. In 2024, December cancelled more flights than November — 0.70% versus 0.45%. In 2025, that order flipped: November cancelled 2.49% of flights, higher than December's 1.55%. Both months also cancelled far more in 2025 than in 2024, regardless of which one was higher that year. Cancellations are tracked separately from delays in DOT reporting, and this swing is a reminder that a single holiday season's cancellation rate depends heavily on that particular year's weather and disruptions — unlike the November-over-December on-time gap, which held steady in both years measured.

Why there's no "worst day to fly before Thanksgiving" number here

You've probably seen travel guides name an exact date — something like "the Tuesday before Thanksgiving is the worst travel day of the year." FlightRecord can't make that claim, and won't invent one. The BTS on-time performance data behind this site, and FlightRecord's own database, are both aggregated by month, not broken out by specific calendar date. That means there's a real, measurable November-versus-December difference to report, but no dataset here to say which individual day within either month is worse or better than another. Any source that gives you an exact "worst day before Thanksgiving" percentage is either using a different data source or estimating — treat those claims accordingly.

Use the day-of-week pattern as a complementary heuristic

FlightRecord's analysis of the best day of the week to fly found that, across all 24 months of data, Tuesday (about 82% on-time) and Wednesday (about 81%) are the most reliable days to fly overall, while Sunday (about 75%) is the least reliable. That's a general, all-year pattern — not something measured specifically for Thanksgiving or Christmas week — but if your travel dates are flexible within a chosen month, it's a reasonable heuristic to layer on top of the November-over-December finding above.

One caveat is worth flagging honestly: the Wednesday before Thanksgiving is widely known to be one of the single highest-volume travel days of the entire year. The day-of-week pattern above is an average across ordinary weeks, where Wednesday tends to run reliably partly because demand is lighter than on weekends. That specific advantage may not hold on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, when demand is unusually heavy regardless of the day. FlightRecord doesn't have a Thanksgiving-week-specific day-by-day breakdown to confirm or rule this out — so use the general Tuesday/Wednesday pattern for the rest of your travel dates, but don't assume it applies unchanged to the single biggest travel day of the year.

How to check this year's holiday numbers before you book

These figures reflect the two most recent Novembers and Decembers in FlightRecord's data, current through May 2026. As new months of BTS data get added, the most reliable way to see the latest single-month numbers — including whichever November or December is closest to your travel dates — is FlightRecord's monthly reports, which break down on-time and cancellation rates month by month as new data arrives. If you already have a specific flight booked, it's also worth checking that flight number's own on-time history rather than relying on the monthly average alone — a single popular holiday route can run noticeably better or worse than its month's overall number.

Frequently asked questions

Is Thanksgiving or Christmas a better time to fly?

Thanksgiving travel (November) is more reliable than Christmas travel (December) in FlightRecord's data. Over the past two years, November averaged about 83% on-time compared to about 76% for December — a consistent gap in both 2024 and 2025.

What is the worst day to fly before Thanksgiving?

FlightRecord's data doesn't answer this at the day level — BTS on-time performance data is reported monthly, not by specific calendar date. What the data does show is a monthly pattern: November as a whole runs well above the national on-time average, while December runs modestly below it.

Are more flights cancelled around Christmas than Thanksgiving?

It varies by year, unlike the on-time pattern. In 2024, December's cancellation rate (0.70%) was higher than November's (0.45%). In 2025, that flipped — November cancelled more (2.49%) than December (1.55%). Both months' cancellation rates were far higher in 2025 than in 2024 overall. Unlike the on-time gap, which favored November in both years, cancellations don't follow a consistent Thanksgiving-versus-Christmas pattern in FlightRecord's data.

How much delay should I expect flying in November or December?

Average departure delay ranged from 10.2 minutes in November 2024 (the mildest of the four) to 21.2 minutes in December 2025 (the roughest). In both years measured, November ran a shorter average departure delay than the December that followed it.

Does "November" and "December" here mean the actual holiday travel days, or the whole month?

The whole month. These figures cover every flight in November or December, not just the days immediately around Thanksgiving or Christmas. FlightRecord's underlying BTS data is reported at the monthly level, which is why this post reports monthly findings instead of estimating a single travel day's performance.